There is just one week left in the 2024 NFL regular season, and several fan bases are starting to think about the 2025 draft, which begins April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, ESPN’s FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model’s team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions gave the New York Giants the first pick after Week 16, but there has been a shift at the top of the board after their 45-33 win over the Indianapolis Colts. The New England Patriots are now in line to finish atop the draft board. Which teams are guaranteed to select in the top 10 behind them? Check out our full projections below ahead of Week 18.
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Average draft position: 1.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 78.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 100%
Average draft position: 2.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 93.9%
Average draft position: 3.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 11.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 74.3%
Average draft position: 3.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88%
Average draft position: 5.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 59.5%
Average draft position: 5.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.4%
Average draft position: 6.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 27.9%
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.5%
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.7%
Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0%
Average draft position: 12.1
Average draft position: 12.8
Average draft position: 12.8
Average draft position: 13.5
Average draft position: 15.8
Average draft position: 16.3
Average draft position: 17.7
Average draft position: 17.7
Average draft position: 19.8
Average draft position: 23.0
Average draft position: 23.1
Average draft position: 23.1
Average draft position: 23.7
Average draft position: 24.3
Average draft position: 24.4
Average draft position: 25.9
Average draft position: 26.5
Average draft position: 27.1
Average draft position: 27.3
Average draft position: 27.4
Average draft position: 29.0
Average draft position: 29.7