Why watch: On its face, this presents as a solid matchup of power conference contenders with identical records. It might unfold that way, but the Gamecocks come in as favorites after finishing as one of the hottest teams in the SEC. They’ll hope for another strong outing from dynamic freshman QB LaNorris Sellers to get a jump start on next season. Unfortunately, he will not have draft-eligible RB Raheim Sanders with him in the backfield one more time, but WRs Mazeo Bennett and Nyck Harbor could be utilized often. Fighting Illini QB Luke Altmyer is a go, but his top target WR Pat Bryant is opting out. That will likely mean frequent targets for WR Zakhari Franklin.
Why it could disappoint: The Gamecocks fared much better against the top tier of their conference, while the Illini won their share of games in the Big Ten but weren’t particularly close to knocking off Penn State or Oregon. That may or may not be a harbinger here, but if there is a mismatch it would figure to go South Carolina’s way.
Time/TV/location: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Houston
Why watch: Dave Aranda’s chair in Waco was starting to feel a wee bit warm as Baylor began the campaign 2-4 but cooled considerably as the Bears ran off six consecutive wins to close the regular season. Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson and RB Bryson Washington put up big scores during the run and hope to keep the momentum going. The temperature trended the other way at LSU, where a three-game skid after the season’s midpoint derailed the Tigers’ SEC title hopes. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier announced he’d be back next year, in theory a positive development despite his occasionally incurring the wrath of fans. He’ll be short-handed here, however, with top WR Kyren Lacy and key OT Will Campbell headed to the draft.
Why it could disappoint: Baylor probably needs to make this a shootout, but given both teams’ regular struggles on defense that could very well be how things unfold. If that is indeed the case, we could have a fun one leading into the first quarterfinal.
Time/TV/location: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Glendale, Ariz.
Why watch: The first quarterfinal pits the rested Broncos with their Heisman runner-up against the tough Nittany Lions defense that passed its first postseason test with flying colors. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty brings his 2,497 yards and 29 rushing TDs into State Farm Stadium. He’ll be opposed by Penn State LB Kobe King, who will probably also get secondary support from DB Jaylen Reed. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen is more than capable of providing air cover for Jeanty and has only been picked three times this season, a number that must not increase since the Nittany Lions have amply demonstrated they know what to do with errant passes. Penn State can run the ball a little in its own right, with the platoon of RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for 1,820 yards themselves. The Broncos also deploy their secondary in ground support frequently, with sure tacklers like Ty Benefield and Seyi Oladipo often providing the finish. But QB Drew Allar’s ultimate weapon, TE Tyler Warren, will test Boise’s coverage schemes.
Why it could disappoint: If the Nittany Lions’ defense once again has its way in the game’s first few series, we might be in for another suspense-free contest. A Broncos’ rout seems less likely, but the turnover bug might bite Penn State with the pressure on.