The Davidson Wildcats take on the Arizona Wildcats in Nassau, Bahamas, as part of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arizona is favored by 16 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1700. The total is set at 152.5 points.
Here are my Davidson vs. Arizona predictions and college basketball picks for November 27, 2024.
Davidson vs Arizona Prediction
My Pick: Arizona -15.5
My Davidson vs Arizona best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Davidson vs Arizona Odds, Spread, Pick
Wednesday, Nov. 27
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
| Davidson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+16 -110 |
152.5 -110o / -110u |
+950 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-16 -110 |
152.5 -110o / -110u |
-1700 |
- Davidson vs Arizona spread: Arizona -16
- Davidson vs Arizona over/under: 152.5 points
- Davidson vs Arizona moneyline: Arizona -1700, Davidson +950
- Davidson vs Arizona best bet: Arizona -15.5
My Davidson vs Arizona NCAAB Betting Preview
The situational spot screams Arizona.
After back-to-back losses to Wisconsin (KenPom No. 30, road) and Duke (KenPom No. 4, home), the Wildcats should bounce back and cruise to a neutral-court victory over Davidson (KenPom No. 116), which will be facing its first real test of the season after wins over Bowling Green, East Tennessee State and VMI.
There are some more nuanced schematic mismatches to unpack.
Arizona wants to run the open court and dump the ball into the post, where Tobe Awaka and the monstrous 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas have likely already established early post positions.
Matt McKillop-led teams are consistently among the nation’s best transition-denial defenses. But the Wildcats have been ripped apart on the low block since the start of last season — Sean Logan and Reed Bailey are brutal post-up defenders, and frontcourt depth is a question mark.
On the other end of the court, Davidson runs a methodical half-court motion offense that runs shooters around a web of secondary off-ball screens on the perimeter. The offense has been highly productive against low-major competition.
Still, I think the Wildcats’ 38% 3-point clip is due for regression — ShotQuality projects that number closer to 33% based on the “quality” of shots taken, and I doubt Bobby Durkin keeps shooting over 52% from deep in the long run.
Additionally, Arizona’s defense should hold up OK against perimeter-oriented motion-based offenses. While rim protection and frontcourt depth are question marks, the Wildcats have a stable of lengthier, switchable, above-average perimeter defenders — for example, KJ Lewis, Anthony Dell’Orso, Jaden Bradley and Caleb Love.
Speaking of Love, he will shoot Arizona out of games. He shot 1-for-15 from 3 against Duke and Wisconsin, and the Wildcats predictably lost both games. He’s been downright dreadful this November.
But he’s a streaky playmaker — you get the good and the bad with Love — and I think we’ll see some positive shooting regression for the fifth-year guard.
The same goes for the entire Wildcat offense, which is shooting 27% from 3 on the young season, while ShotQuality projects that mark closer to 33% based on the “quality” of attempts.
Davidson is due for a similar amount of positive 3-point shooting variance on defense (allowing 39% from 3 despite closing out on over 60% of catch-and-shoot 3-point jumpers). But that might not matter if Arizona consistently punishes the rim against Logan and Bailey.
Ultimately, the situational spot screams Arizona, and I’m unsure if Davidson is ready for a big step up in competition.
Tommy Lloyd’s squad might not get its usual onslaught of fast-break buckets, but Arizona should score efficiently and consistently in the half-court, and I can’t say the same for Davidson.