The Essentials
Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils
Date: January 11th, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Broadcast: MSG, FDSNSUN, ESPN+
Listen: Devils Hockey Network
The Last Devils Game: The Devils lost to Our Hated Rivals in overtime on Thursday night 3-2. Check out Chris’ recap of that game.
The Last Lightning Game: The Lightning played Thursday night and defeated the Boston Bruins 4-1. Check out NHL.com’s recap of that game.
The Last Devils – Lightning Game: The Devils were shut out by the Lightning back on November 16th. If you missed that one, you didn’t miss much, but you can read John’s recap here. It’s no secret that the Lightning have given the Devils problems. Before their shutout loss in November, the Bolts beat the Devils 8-5 in a high-scoring affair in October.
Recent Momentum: The Lightning (22-15-2) have won two of their last six games. The Devils (25-15-4) have won once in their previous six games. It was an ugly road trip. Enough said.
The Lineups
New Jersey Devils
Based on their game against the Rangers, the Devils are projected to start the following lines and pairings. I expect Kurtis MacDermid to sit out this matchup.
Forwards
Timo Meier – Nico Hischier – Stefan Noesen
Ondrej Palat – Jack Hughes – Jesper Bratt
Paul Cotter – Justin Dowling – Dawson Mercer
Tomas Tatar – Curtis Lazar – Nathan Bastian
Defensemen
Brenden Dillon – Dougie Hamilton
Jonas Siegenthaler – Johnathan Kovacevic
Luke Hughes – Brett Pesce
Goaltenders
Jacob Markstrom
Jake Allen
Tampa Bay Lightning
Per Gabby Shirely, Tampa is projected to start the following lineup.
Forwards
Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Geekie
Gage Goncalves – Nick Paul – Michael Eyssimont
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Mitchell Chaffee
Defensemen
Victor Hedman – Darren Raddysh
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Goaltenders
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jonas Johansson
Andrei Vasilevskiy has started the last two games. The Devils may face Jonas Johansson.
What to Watch For
Statistically Solid
When you look at the statistics, it is easy to see why Tampa has given New Jersey trouble. As of Friday evening, per NHL.com, the Lightning are fifth in the NHL in goals and third in goals allowed. Tampa has the fifth-ranked power play. If there is a chink in the armor, maybe it is their penalty kill, where the Lightning are ranked eighth. One could look at Tampa’s expected goals for (xGF) statistics to make themselves feel better, but you’d be fooling yourself. The Lightning rank near the bottom of the league in that category, and this is where analytics will drive you crazy. How can a team be fifth in the league in goals scored but 25th in expected goals scored? They are one of the best teams in the league in ACTUAL goals scored, which is the statistic that counts.
The threats remain the same. As of the writing of this post, Nikita Kucherov is fifth in the NHL with 58 points (17 goals and 41 assists). Brayden Point is second in the league in goals with 25. Defensively, Ryan McDonagh is surprisingly just outside the top ten in the NHL in +/- with a record of +19. Victor Hedman leads the Lightning’s defensive corps with 30 points (5 goals and 25 assists). And then there is Andrei Vasilevskiy. We’ll discuss him more in a minute.
With numbers like that, it’s not a shock to see the Lightning in the hunt again this season. Somehow, Tampa has only played 39 games as of Friday, while the leaders in the Atlantic have all played at least 42 games. The NHL’s scheduling makes no sense. Anyway, despite having played fewer games than teams like Toronto and Florida, they stand in third place in the division.
Is a Vasilevskiy Update Necessary?
No. It is not. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been steady as a rock for years, and this season is no different. Per NHL.com, the Lightning netminder is within the top ten in the league in terms of save percentage and goals against average. There is a chance that the Devils will not face Vasilevskiy since he started against the Bruins. As expected, his counterpart, Jonas Johansson, has had less success. While Vasilevskiy has been holding opponents to under 2.5 goals per game, Johansson has been averaging over three goals allowed per game. I’m not hating on Johansson, but I’d rather avoid the Big Cat if possible.
The Absence of Haula and Trade Interests
Erik Haula is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. In his absence, I was interested to see what Justin Dowling could do as the third-line center, but in a tiny sample size, I don’t think he is the answer. I know that is not necessarily a surprise. That is not to discount what Dowling can provide. I think he might give Lazar a run for his money for the fourth-line center, and I like his forecheck, but the Devils need an offensive catalyst on that line. Mercer has a niche in front of the net. Cotter has some slick mitts and can score, but the Devils need someone to make the offensive production on that line more consistent.
Recent reports from Pierre LeBrun indicate that the Devils are interested in Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens. Evans is tied for third on the Canadiens in goals with ten and tied for fourth in points with 23. The Montreal center is 28 years old and is a pending unrestricted free agent. Evans looks like a potential answer to the third-line production problem on paper, but the Devils are not the only team interested in Evans. It is unclear what the Devils will have to give up for the responsible, two-way center, but he could be the answer New Jersey is looking for.
Your Thoughts
What do you think about a potential trade for Evans? What does New Jersey do to generate depth scoring? The Devils sure need answers! Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you for reading, and GO DEVILS!