In 2011, Jim Harbaugh led the San Francisco 49ers to the postseason in his first season as an NFL head coach. Thirteen years later, in his first season back in the professional coaching ranks after nine seasons at the University of Michigan, he led the Los Angeles Chargers to the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs.

The Chargers, who have returned to the postseason after a one-year absence, open their playoff run with a road battle against the Houston Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Los Angeles is led by quarterback Justin Herbert, who has been one of the most accurate passers in football this year, completing 65.9% of his passes for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just three interceptions.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chargers are three-point favorites, and the point total is set at 41.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Herbert.

Best Justin Herbert Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook

Justin Herbert 250+ Passing Yards (+135)

In general, Herbert hasn’t been a high-volume passer this season, as his 504 attempts were the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only a 2023 campaign in which he played just 13 games. Throughout the season, Herbert dropped back to pass on just 54.4% of plays, the 10th-most conservative offense in football.

Still, he has been entrusted with greater responsibility in recent weeks. Herbert attempted at least 30 passes in each of the season’s last five games and put up some impressive stats, combining for 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 263.8 yards per contest. Only three regular starters — Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield — averaged more than 263.8 yards per game across the full season. Plus, the 108.7 passer rating he posted over his past five starts would have been the third-best in the NFL in 2024-25.

The Texans have a fairly strong defense, allowing quarterbacks to complete just 58.8% of their passes, by far the lowest percentage in football. Houston has also conceded just 3,753 yards, the sixth-fewest in the league, and recorded 19 interceptions, the second-most. However, they are still beatable; the Texans have also given up 31 touchdowns, more than all but the dreadful Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons. With the eighth-highest on-target percentage (78.9%) and the 11th-lowest bad throw percentage (13.7%), Herbert is well-equipped to minimize Houston’s strengths.

Justin Herbert O20.5 Completions (-105)

With Herbert’s increased volume, his accuracy has not suffered. In fact, after completing just 63.4% of his passes in his first 12 games of the season, he has completed nearly 71% of his passes in his last five games despite being similarly aggressive (8.65 intended air yards per attempt in his first 12 games and 8.46 in his last five). He recorded at least 21 completions in each of those five games and six of his last seven overall.

Sure, the Texans’ completion percentage allowed figure is gaudy, but so is the Cleveland Browns’ 61.8%. Herbert had no problem carving up Cleveland, completing 66.7% of his passes against the Browns, so there’s no reason to figure his accuracy would slip against Houston. He has also posted a significantly higher completion percentage (69.1% versus 62.3%) away from the friendly confines of SoFi Stadium.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.