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Long Range Forecast — December 13, 2024

Kraven the Hunter | Sony / Columbia Pictures

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $25M

This December sees the long-delayed release of Sony’s Kraven the Hunter, starring Aaron Taylor-Johnson as the eponymous antihero and directed by J.C. Chandor (Margin Call, All Is Lost, A Most Violent Year). Initially slated for release in January 2023… then October 2023… then August 2024… it’s been a long road to the big screen for the latest entry in Sony’s series of Spidey villain origin stories, which—unlike the studio’s animated Spider-Verse series—do not feature any iteration of your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man.

The series of delays could have a serious impact on Kraven‘s box office take. When footage was first shown at CinemaCon 2022, much emphasis was placed on the film’s R rating, then a novelty for comic book movies. By the time Kraven comes out, it will be the third such movie to be released in 2024, following July’s Deadpool & Wolverine—now the highest-grossing R-rated movie of all time domestically ($636.7M) and globally ($1.33B)—and October’s Joker: Folie à Deux, which was once thought to be a potential $100M opener but only made it to $58.3M in its entire theatrical run. Not only does Kraven now lack the marketing pull its R rating might once have provided, it could fall victim to audience fatigue among target demos.

Among Sony’s other live-action movies set in the Spider-Man universe, an opening weekend in the $20M-$25M range would put Kraven near the bottom of the pack, above February 2024’s Madame Web ($15.3M domestic opening, $43.8M domestic total) but behind everything else, including April 2022’s Morbius ($39M domestic opening, $73.8M domestic total), the series’ second-lowest opener to date. That would leave the Tom Hardy-starring Venom trilogy still leading the pack. In fact, there’s a very real chance that Kraven‘s entire domestic run could fail to exceed even the opening weekend take of October 2024’s Venom: The Last Dance ($51M domestic opening, $128.8 domestic total after four weeks), the lowest-grossing of Sony’s three Venom films. (The other two, October 2018’s Venom and October 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage, both grossed $213.5M domestically)

If there’s any silver lining to be found in Kraven‘s opening weekend forecast, it’s that the film it shares an opening weekend with—Warner Bros.’ Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim—is currently expected by our forecasting panel to open even lower, at $8M-$15M. That said, if our forecasting holds true both films will face stiff competition (for screens and audiences) from holdovers Wicked Part 1 and Moana 2, both of which have seen their opening estimates increase steadily since the beginning of their respective pre-sales periods.

Tracking Updates [as of 11/22]