A 1-3 record for NBA player props across Tuesday’s slate isn’t exactly what I envisioned, with two of the failed bets coming in blowouts, but we move forward and hopefully find redemption (and profit) in the busy eight-game schedule on Wednesday night.
Here are three expert player prop picks for your consideration, including one which projects Daniel Gafford’s hot streak to be halted against the Minnesota Timberwolves with an UNDER combo prop (-111) on January 22, 2025.
Daniel Gafford UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Timberwolves (-111)
Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
It would be easy for fall head over heels for Gafford after witnessing two of his last three performances in which he connected on 24 of his 28 total shots from the field, albeit in losses to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets. Those numbers would put anyone on notice, but they did come against two of the weaker defenses in basketball, and the moment he saw a competent defensive attack from an opposing side in between, his numbers (eight points, six rebounds, and five turnovers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder on Jan. 27) were more than kept in check.
That should be the case versus Minnesota when it visits the American Airlines Center. The Timberwolves rank fifth in rebounds allowed to centers (14.02) and 12th in points (21.04), and having to bang down low against reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle will surely take its toll on one of the few bigs Dallas has available.
Dereck Lively II was originally listed as questionable after being absent the past three games with an ankle sprain, which would have cut into Gafford’s minutes, but he’s since been ruled out for at least two months with a fracture in his foot.
Nick Smith Jr. OVER 10.5 Points vs. Grizzlies (-113)
Preview: Charlotte Hornets vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
It’s a limited window of just two games since Nick Smith Jr. was inserted into the starting lineup, but so far so good for the 20-year-old sophomore guard. He’s averaging 17 points on 52 percent shooting from the field while connecting on four 3-pointers per game at a 53.3-percent clip during this run, ranking third on the Charlotte Hornets in scoring and fourth in shot attempts.
Smith Jr. will need 11 points to reach an OVER on Wednesday, and considering he’s dropped at least 15 in each of his two starts, this wager feels like a slam dunk. He’s still well down the pecking order behind LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and even Mark Williams when it comes to importance, but Smith Jr’s emergence as a credible option and outside presence gives the Hornets another weapon to bolster what’s the third-worst offense in basketball.
Malik Monk OVER 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Warriors (-104)
Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
As the Sacramento Kings continue to flourish in the win-loss column, so does Malik Monk with his box scores, especially in the PRA (points + rebounds + assists) market. The jack of all trades has been superb during this stretch of nine victories in 10 games, averaging 22.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and a team-high 7.3 assists.
This includes seven OVERs on a 28.5 PRA throughout those 10 appearances, including a six-game OVER streak which was just broken on Jan. 19 versus the Washington Wizards, although Monk came awfully close to making it seven in a row by coming up just short with a still impressive 23 points, four dimes, and a board across 30 minutes.
The depleted Golden State Warriors are allowing 125.1 points per 100 possessions over the last three games, ranking 28th overall. In a 30-point win over the Warriors back on Jan. 5, Monk had a career-high 12 assists to go along with his 26 points, so we just witnessed him thrive in this particular matchup not that long ago.