The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, January 7th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 7th
NBA Best Bets Today – January 7th
Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
The Celtics have looked like the best team in basketball at times this season, but the consistency from last year isn’t there. Boston is also just 7-10 against the spread on the road, and the team is also 2-5 ATS versus Western Conference opponents. On top of that, the Celtics have failed to cover in 10 of their last 15 games, and that includes two of the three games they have played on this current four-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won and covered in four of their last five games. They’re also 9-4 straight-up and 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games. With that in mind, this Denver team has been a little more reliable than Boston lately.
The Nuggets have also won and covered in each of their last three meetings with the Celtics, with Nikola Jokic absolutely dominated Boston. In two meetings with the Celtics last year, Jokic averaged 33.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game on 61.0% shooting from the floor, 50.0% shooting from 3 and 100.0% shooting from the free throw line. Boston just doesn’t have a good answer for the big man’s size, and I’m not sure I see that changing here.
The only thing I’m a little worried about here is the absence of Aaron Gordon, who is going to be missed as a body to throw on Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. However, the fact that Denver is coming off two full days of rest should make up for that. Boston might be a little low in energy at the end of this road trip, but the same isn’t true of the home team. Oh, and that home team happens to have Russell Westbrook, a human energizer bunny.
This just feels like a game that the Nuggets should be able to keep close, and I also like Denver’s chances of winning outright. The team is just going to need to commit to defending the 3-point line. We saw New York shoot the heck out of the ball and blow out Denver towards the end of November. Well, Boston is similar to New York in its ability to light it up from deep. So, let’s see what Mike Malone comes up with defensively. However, it’s clear he likes coaching his guys against this Celtics group.
Bet: Nuggets +6.5 (-113 – 1.5 units) & Nuggets ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – January 7th
Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 pm ET
Ryan Dunn is now starting for the Suns. The team realized that his defense and energy was a necessity moving forward, and the rookie has now played at least 27 minutes in four straight games. Well, with Dunn now playing consistent minutes, he’s a player to watch when it comes to 3-point props. Dunn is far from a good shooter. In fact, he was known as a complete non-threat from deep heading into the 2024 NBA Draft. But Dunn has been a little better than expected when it comes to spacing the floor, and one thing that’s clear is that he isn’t lacking in confidence. Dunn has taken at least five 3s in four of his last five games. But what I really like here is that Dunn has made at least two 3s in two of his last three games. And he’s now taking on a defense that will be laying off him in order to not get killed by Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. So, Dunn will have clean looks throughout this one. I’m putting some trust in him to bury a couple. Even with Dunn not being a great shooter, I’m not sure sportsbooks will be able to put plus-money odds on this much longer. The 3-point volume is just too high.
Bet: Dunn Over 1.5 Made 3s (+110)
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks – 7:30 pm ET
Quentin Grimes has scored at least 15 points in three of his last five games, and I just need him to score 14 tonight. This isn’t normally a play I’d be jumping to make, but it’ll be Grimes and Spencer Dinwiddie with increased on-ball opportunities with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic out. And I trust Grimes a little more because of his ability to knock down catch-and-shoot 3s. Grimes is shooting 39.6% from deep this year, so he’ll knock down triples when he’s slid off the ball to accommodate others. And when Grimes operates as the lead guard, he should be able to create some decent looks for himself. He has grown a lot as a creator since his earlier days in the league.
This is also just a good matchup for opposing guards. While Los Angeles has gotten a little better defensively lately, the team is still 21st in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (-114.2). And the Lakers are weakest in the backcourt.
Bet: Grimes Over 13.5 Points (-102)
Parlays, Teasers, Late Added Plays, In-Season Futures
Nothing tonight.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 156-149-1 (+9.17 units)