Prediction, preview, TV, betting line

• What: Michigan State at Ohio State

• When: 8 p.m. Friday

• Where: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, Ohio.

• TV/Radio: Fox/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 381 (MSU broadcast), 382 (Ohio State broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 11-2 overall, 2-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 15 in the Coaches Poll and No. 18 in The Associated Press Poll and is No. 20 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Ohio State is 9-4 overall, 1-1 in the Big Ten and unranked in both the major polls and rated No. 28 by Kenpom.

• Betting line: Ohio State -2

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 718-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Ohio State — Jake Diebler is 17-7 in his second season as a head coach, his first full season. He took over for the final 11 games last season, going 8-3, after Ohio State fired Chris Holtmann in mid-February.

• Series: MSU leads 75-61 all-time. The Buckeyes won the only meeting last year, 60-57, on a last-second shot at Breslin Center.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.4

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.1

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.7

G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.4

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4

Ohio State

C (13) Sean Stewart (6-9) 5.9

F (21) Devin Royal (6-6) 14.8

SF (12) Evan Mahaffey (6-6) 5.2

G (0) John Mobley (6-1) 12.2

G (2) Bruce Thornton (6-2) 17.4

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off probably their most ho-hum performance of the season, an 80-62 win over Western Michigan, during which, for the first time really, they looked like they were going through the motions for much of the game. Otherwise, it’s been a heckuva start — somewhere between awfully intriguing and inspiring. At 11-2 and 2-0 in the Big Ten, MSU is in a good place as it swings back into Big Ten play full-time. MSU’s record is part of that, but so is how the Spartans have looked and what they’ve shown, especially since late November. MSU is in the top 17 nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, and the Spartans have reestablished themselves as an elite rebounding team, including being sixth-best in the country at keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Their 81.3% free-throw percentage is also seventh-best nationally.

• Ohio State update: The Buckeyes have been a mixed bag to this point, to the extreme. They got thumped at Maryland by 24 points (in a game that wasn’t that close), then beat Rutgers by 14 points, then lost by 38 to Auburn (who’s No. 1 in Kenpom) and, just before Christmas, beat Kentucky by 20 on a neutral court. It’s important to note that, just before that Kentucky game, Ohio State got back guard Ques Glover, who played a little in the first three games but essentially hadn’t played since 2022-23 at Samford, and he made an immediate and considerable impact off the bench. The Buckeyes have been without starting guard Meechie Johnson for the last three games for personal reasons.

• Matchup analysis: MSU knows Ohio State lead guard Bruce Thornton well. He’s a terrific scorer off the dribble and, this season, has made 24 of 49 3-point attempts. Sharpshooter John Mobley (32-for-69) is just as dangerous off the catch and Ques Glover, just back from injury, is a good 3-point shooter and dynamic offensive player. Sophomore forward Devin Royal has been an offensive force scoring in the paint as an undersized 4-man. Overall, Ohio State’s offensive and defensive efficiency numbers speak to a team that’s capable of being a factor in the Big Ten. And the Buckeyes shoot and defend the 3-point shot well. There are some areas that play to MSU’s favor. Ohio State fouls a ton (and doesn’t shoot its own free throws very well) and is just so-so at best on the glass. The Spartans should be able to get to the line and keep the Buckeyes from getting second-chance opportunities.

RELATED: Couch: Is Michigan State men’s basketball back? The numbers suggest MSU’s start is real

• Prediction: Kenpom has the Buckeyes winning this game 76-73. Ohio State’s efficiency numbers, offensive firepower, home court in this matchup and several high-ceiling performances make that understandable. But I don’t know if the Schottenstein Center will be alive and kicking this Friday night and MSU has had some good moments there in recent years. Still, this could be MSU’s first tough environment, given that the Spartans’ only true road game to this point was at Minnesota and they took the Gophers out of that game quickly. I think this will be a close game and, in close games, MSU is yet to show a steady hand and consistent offense down the stretch. This would be a big win for the Spartans, one that I think will hold up on a resume and one that a lot of teams in the Big Ten won’t get on the road in Columbus.

• Make it: Ohio State 80, MSU 76

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