Alexander Ovechkin is back, and the chase for history has resumed.

Ovechkin returned to the Washington lineup on Friday, needing 27 goals to pass Wayne Gretzky for the all-time crown. He wasted little time in getting the first of those that night, and then added another on Sunday in Detroit, bringing him to 870 on his career heading into last night’s matchup with Boston.

A broken leg ended up costing Ovechkin just 16 games, which is on the low end of what we were told to expect. It’s still a decent chunk of time, and means that catching Gretzky this season is far from a sure thing. Can he still do it? Of course he can, and everyone knows it.

But when? After all, if you’re going to build toward the fall of arguably the greatest individual record in the sport, you’d at least hope that the hockey gods have a sense of drama. And now that he’s back, it’s not too early to look ahead at the Capitals’ schedule and wonder: Which games would be the best ones to see some history?

Luckily for those hockey gods, I’ve gone ahead and done the work for them. Heading into last night, Ovechkin was 25 goals away from the record, and the Caps had 46 games left. If we assume that even the sport’s greatest sniper’s absolute ceiling would be to score at a goal-per-game pace, that takes us to the first week of March and a roughly 20-game window in which the record could realistically fall (although we’ll bend that rule with one exception you’ll see below).

Let’s rank the best and worst games for it to happen.

The 10 best

10. Game 57: Oilers at Capitals (Feb. 23)

This is that one exception we mentioned up above, and it feels like a pipe dream; Ovechkin would have to score at better than a goal-a-game pace for two straight months to get close to the record by late February. Still, seeing him break Gretzky’s record against the team the Great One scored most of those goals for would be an irresistible twist on the storyline. And since it’s a Sunday afternoon game after football season, the NHL could have the entire sports world focused on the drama. I can’t rank this one any higher because it’s so unlikely, but if it ever happened it would be just about ideal.

9. Game 70: Panthers at Capitals (March 22)

This might be my Canadian color showing, but I’ve been trained to think of Saturday nights as hockey’s ideal viewing window. This is the only prime-time Saturday game the Caps have in March, and it just so happens to come against the star-studded defending Cup champions who were also the first team to (try to) draft Ovechkin. Let’s just say it wouldn’t be a hard sell.

8. Game 73: Sabres at Capitals (March 30)

Here’s something I only realized when I sat down to write this piece: Of the Capitals’ last dozen games of the season, only four are at home. That’s… not great. It goes without saying that all four of those games will be on our list, even if having Ovechkin break the record against the Sabres might feel a bit like seeing Hank Aaron park home run number 715 off of a little leaguer. Still, this is a Sunday afternoon game that could get plenty of attention, so it’s a solid option.

7. Game 63: Red Wings at Capitals (March 7)

I went back and forth on this one. March 7 is trade deadline day, which is always one of the biggest dates of any regular season and means we’d risk splitting fan attention between two major stories. But then you think back to the last few deadlines, where most of the action has come in the days before, and deadline day itself involves a lot of sitting around looking for something to talk about. Combine two of the biggest days of the year into one, and you could have the deadline studio shows lead straight into that night’s record watch in a seamless all-day hockey firehose.

6. Not until next year (but at home)

Sure, it’s not ideal, especially if Ovechkin were to get close to the record and then fall just short. But having him go into next season a few goals shy wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It would give the NHL an entire offseason to promote the finale to the chase, and put plans in place to nail the moment. More importantly, the league could put its thumb on the scale in terms of the October schedule, starting the Caps off with a long homestand against big-market rivals to maximize the moment’s impact.

5. Game 62: Capitals at Rangers (March 5)

If he can’t break the record at home, having him do it in a big media market like New York might be the next best option from the league’s perspective. If so, it’s far more likely to happen against the Islanders, who host the Caps in games 77 and 81, and those games come late enough in the season that you could absolutely make a case for either of them to crack this list. Instead, I’m going with an admittedly less likely scenario, where Ovechkin stays hot enough to go into Madison Square Garden looking to break the record on TNT in the building Gretzky played his final game in.

4. Game 78: Hurricanes at Capitals (April 10)

This would be late enough in the season to carry plenty of drama, but early enough that the suspense wouldn’t get uncomfortable. The league might even prefer to get the record chase done with in time for the late-season playoff bubble to reclaim the spotlight. And as a bonus, this could be a playoff preview, and there’s enough history with the Hurricanes that they wouldn’t want to be the team that had to watch the celebration. Not a bad option at all.

3. Game 76: Blackhawks at Capitals (April 4)

It’s a Friday night, which isn’t ideal from a TV perspective, but otherwise it’s hard to argue with this pick. You’d have the league’s favorite big market serving as an opponent, with an added dose of Original Six history. You’d have fellow first-overall pick Connor Bedard on the other side to see the record fall, making for a nice torch-passing vibe. And with only two other games on the slate, this is the closest the Caps come to having a night all to themselves down the stretch.

2. Game 82: Capitals at Penguins (April 17)

It’s not home ice, but otherwise this one is just about perfect. Having Ovechkin going into the final night of the season with one last shot at history would be fantastic drama. And having it happen against the team and player that has served as his greatest rival throughout his career? Icing on the cake.

1. Game 80: Blue Jackets at Capitals (April 13)

With a handful of exceptions, most of the games on our list have been home games, for obvious reasons. While Ovechkin figures to get a huge ovation no matter where he breaks the record, the moment will resonate even more if he can do it in front of the fans who have been cheering him on for nearly two decades. This is the Capitals’ last regular-season home game of the year, so if he’s just short of the record at this point, the “final chance” tension will be off the charts. That’s enough to nudge it just ahead of the Penguins game on my list.

The five worst

5. Game 74: Capitals at Bruins (April 1)

At first glance, this would be a game between two playoff teams, even a potential first-round preview, and would see the record fall in an Original Six market. So sure, it seems like a decent option… until you double-check the date. Do you really want to see every two-bit comedian in your social feed dropping hilarious “Ovechkin breaks the record! Just kidding” pranks for three straight hours? You absolutely do not.

4. Game 64: Kraken at Capitals (March 9)

All this history on the line, and then the record finally comes against the league’s newbies? No thanks.

3. Game 71: Capitals at Jets (March 25)

This is the only one of the Capitals’ last 20 games that comes against a Canadian opponent, and it’s in Canada, which means it would be the ideal timing for any Canadian fans who plan to get weirdly patriotic about Gretzky’s record falling to a Russian. Winnipeg fans are cool, and they’re loud enough to give the moment the reaction it deserves. But all the outside noise and over-the-top takes that would go along with this one? No thanks.

2. Game 65: Capitals at Ducks (March 11)

The Caps take their three-game California swing in mid-March, which isn’t great timing considering that this could be right around when the record chase is heating up. Ovechkin is somewhat unlikely to be close to the record at this point, which is good luck for the league, who definitely don’t want to see history happen when eastern sports fans are already asleep. The Sharks game is an afternoon start, and at least if the record fell in Los Angeles you’d have the drama of it coming against one of Gretzky’s former teams. But a game against the lowly Ducks that starts at 10:00 ET on a Tuesday? No thanks.

1. Not until next year (but on the road)

Let’s face it, the most NHL thing ever would be to enter 2025-26 with Ovechkin one goal away and then start the Caps with a meandering road trip through the Pacific Division. You hadn’t even thought of that possibility until just now, but now you’re nodding along and getting angry. Anything but this one, hockey gods.

(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)