Indiana aims for its sixth straight win when it faces Iowa on Saturday night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Hawkeyes are 11-4 and 2-2 in Big Ten games.
Saturday’s game tips off at 8 p.m. ET on FOX:
At 13-3 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten, Indiana has momentum entering Saturday’s tilt against Iowa in Iowa City. The Hoosiers have won five straight and are 3-0 in the new year in conference games, including Sunday’s 77-71 win against Penn State at the Palestra.
But it’s no secret that the competition level is ramping up now. The upcoming 11-game stretch will be season-defining for Indiana. Six of IU’s next 11 games are on the road and every game is currently a Quad 1 opportunity. Up first is Iowa, which is 9-1 at home this season and coming off a thrilling come-from-behind overtime win against Nebraska on Tuesday night.
(Editor’s note: Listen to our preview of IU-Iowa with Tyler Tachman on Podcast on the Brink.)
MEET THE HAWKEYES
Fran McCaffery’s Iowa teams follow a similar script each season. The Hawkeyes couple an elite offense with a not-so-good defense. This Iowa team has the league’s fifth-best offense and 17th-best defense through four league games.
The scouting report starts with senior wing Payton Sandfort, who tested the NBA draft waters in the spring before returning for one final season at Iowa. The 6-foot-8 Sandfort has been streaky this season and the Nebraska game was the latest example. After going scoreless in the first half, Sandfort exploded for 30 points in the second half and overtime to lead the Hawkeyes to a 97-87 win against the Huskers.
Sandfort is second on Iowa in scoring at 16.5 points per game and second in rebounding at 5.8 per game. He’s shooting 40.3 percent from the field and 34.5 percent on 3s (113 attempts). He’s also second on the team in assists, with 3.3 per game.
Iowa’s leading scorer and rebounder is sophomore Owen Freeman. The 6-foot-10 native of Moline, Illinois, shared Big Ten freshman of the year honors last season with IU’s Mackenzie Mgbako. Freeman averages 16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocked shots in 25.4 minutes per game. He shoots an efficient 65.4 percent on 2s.
Council Bluffs native Josh Dix is an elite shooter on the wing for Iowa. A career 42.9 percent 3-point shooter, the 6-foot-6 Dix had 31 points in the win against Nebraska. Dix is 14-for-26 on 3s in Big Ten play and is averaging 21.3 points in conference games.
Fifth-year senior guard Drew Thelwell transferred from Morehead State to Iowa for his final season of eligibility. Thelwell missed Tuesday’s game against Nebraska, but there is optimism that he’ll be available to play against Indiana on Saturday. The 6-foot-3 makes 41 percent of his 3s and has the best steal rate in the Big Ten.
A 6-foot sophomore, Brock Harding is Iowa’s point guard and leading facilitator. Harding has 88 assists to just 37 turnovers and is also a capable 3-point shooter. He’s 18-for-46 (39.1 percent) from distance this season.
Assuming Thelwell is available to play, Iowa’s core bench rotation will consist of sophomore big man Ladji Dembele, sophomore wing Pryce Sandfort and sophomore forward Seydou Traore.
Dembele is a 6-foot-8 forward who averages 4.3 points and 3.6 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per game. He can make the occasional 3-pointer and is making 50 percent of his 2s.
The younger Sandfort has taken a leap in his second season. After shooting just 34.7 percent from distance last season, Pryce is 30-for-75 (40 percent) from deep this season.
Traore is a transfer from Manhattan who has been in and out of the rotation due to injuries. Traore has missed six games but has been healthy for the last three games, including a 14-point effort against New Hampshire on Dec. 30.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
It’s no surprise that Iowa is again an elite offensive team. The Hawkeyes average 89.9 points per game and rank 12th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and 11th in 2-point field goal percentage.
Iowa plays the 20th fastest tempo in the country and has the eighth-lowest turnover percentage, at 13.6, an impressive combination. However, the Hawkeyes don’t grab many offensive rebounds or get to the line often, so they rely highly on making perimeter shots to win.
Iowa is 124th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, worst in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes allow their Big Ten opponents to grab 35.5 percent of their missed shots through four games. Conference foes also shoot 59 percent on 2s, which is last in the league. Iowa doesn’t have the personnel to match up with Oumar Ballo in the post, so it won’t be a surprise to see McCaffery try to take away IU’s big man and force the Hoosiers to make perimeter shots.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Iowa by four, with a 37 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik’s numbers favor the Hawkeyes by five, with a 33 percent chance of an IU road win.
From an IU perspective, the keys are limiting live-ball turnovers, dominating the glass and limiting the amount of in-rhythm looks the Hawkeyes get from the perimeter. Iowa has made at least eight 3-pointers in 14 of its 15 games and has eight games with 10 or more 3-pointers. On average, the Hawkeyes make 10.8 triples per game.
As their last two home conference games have shown, no lead is safe against Iowa in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Against Northwestern on Dec. 3, Iowa trailed 74-68 with 1:43 left and won 80-79. And earlier this week, the Hawkeyes trailed by 15 with 14:10 left before rallying to win in overtime.
This game is crucial for both programs as each attempts to stack conference wins after failing to rack up quality wins in non-conference play.
(Photo credit: Iowa Athletics)
Filed to: Iowa Hawkeyes